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[   ]MWSUG2012_Presentati..>2012-09-17 21:05 1.2M 
[   ]distributions2010.zip 2012-09-17 21:08 137K 
[   ]popBayes2010.zip 2012-09-17 21:08 930K 
[   ]48_Paper.pdf 2012-10-04 15:39 723K 

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MWSUG 2012 paper, presentation and code

Abstract

This paper examines the discrete probability distribution of the age characteristic of the Veteran population in the US. The basis of the examination is the American Community Survey (ACS) and the Social Security Administrations (SSA) period life table for males in 2007. The ACS is stratified to efficiently represent population elements including the population of Veterans. The current Veteran population discrete probability distribution for age is examined as a starting point. The survey also supports examining the expected future age of Veteran discrete probability distributions. The paper will show how to use an efficiently designed stratified survey (the 1 year ACS) to support a simulation that moves that population into the future and provides a basis for estimating future population age distributions and their consequent impact on organization cost and budget planning. Combining the processing of stratified survey data with Operations Research tools (like the discrete event simulator) and supporting subsequent analysis of results is a combined capability that is not matched elsewhere.